Sport Canada

Exposing the ‘Dead Cert’ Myth in Soccer Betting

If you are a keen football punter then no doubt you’ll have sifted through multitudes of online soccer tipping websites to see what services are out there. Frankly, it’s difficult to avoid misleading terms such as ‘sure bet’, ‘banker’, ‘dead cert’ or ‘guaranteed winner’. Many tipsters actually incorporate these terms into the URL of their sites in the hope of increasing the number of sign ups. As a punter and tipster this hugely frustrates me. Without opening up the cans of worms that are the laws of mathematics and statistics, the simple undisputable fact is that there is no such thing as a sure outcome in soccer, or sport. If a dead cert outcome did exist there would be no bookmakers in business to cover our bets. Sometimes I read the introductory few paragraphs which insist that the professional tipster possesses a unique secret method for picking guaranteed winners. I believe that it should be illegal to make such misleading claims.

 

Having more than 20 years of trials and tribulations as a football or ‘soccer’ punter, I can categorically tell you that the whole notion of a dead cert is not only false, but is in itself a contradiction. If the outcome of a particular soccer match was a guarantee, then surely there would be no need for the teams to do battle for ninety minutes. Also, bookmakers would be clinically insane to cover bets on a game whose result was a certainty. I realise that I’m possibly being facetious in my last few sentences, but it’s scary to note the amount of reasonably intelligent people that will believe anything that’s written in print by a so-called ‘expert’.

When I began providing tips to the public via my website, I incorporated a ‘Banker Section’ every week. Now, the idea of this section was to suggest that, having done hours of research and analysis on various games, I really couldn’t see any other outcome than, for example, a home win. If a game from the Banker Section resulted in a shock outcome, I’d suffer as both a tipster and a punter. It effectively made my tipping skills seem incompetent to some my members, not to mention I’d also have personally had a sizeable bet on the game. Two games still stick in my mind and bring back uncomfortable memories.

 

April 10 2010, Scottish Cup: Glasgow Celtic 0 – 2 Ross County.

Premier League giants Celtic were unceremoniously dumped out of the cup by First Division side Ross County, completing one of the biggest upsets in Scottish football history. Many soccer accumulator or multi-bets were subsequently torn up in disgust by outraged punters.

February 21 2010, Dutch League: PSV Eindhoven 1 – 1 Sparta Rotterdam.

This game had been priced as low as 1.09 by bookmakers for a home win, such was the ‘certainty’ of the outcome. PSV had won eleven league games in a row in Eindhoven and were facing a Sparta side who had already lost twelve of their away games that season, and who also went on to be relegated. To add insult to injury, Sparta scored their equalizing goal three minutes into injury time.

 

Huge upset results like these obviously ruin accumulator bets, but more significantly they highlight the fact that you can never ever be certain about the outcome of a soccer bet. Shortly afterwards I did away with the ‘Banker Section’ of my website and instead I use a ranking system between 1 and 10. The highest ranking I assign to any selection is 9/10, as 10/10 equates to 100%, and to predict a football contest with 100% certainty is, as discussed above, not realistic or possible. The more time and effort you put into invaluable research and analysis, the much better chance you have of picking a winner. There is, however, no magic formula for predicting huge upsets which happen time and again even in the most unlikely scenarios. To read more about my online soccer tipping service go to http://www.soccertips365.com.

 

About the Author

Soccer magic

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Stacey The Soccer Fairy (Turtleback School & Library Binding Edition) $14.75 It’s an exciting time in Fairyland. Everyone is getting ready for the Fairy Olympics! But Jack Frost’s goblins have stolen the Sports Fairies’ magic objects. Now they’re threatening to take over the whole competition! Rachel’s favorite soccer team is ready for the big game. But without Stacey the Soccer Fairy’s magic ball, they’ll never reach their goal! Find the enchanted object in each book, and help keep the Fairyland Olympics magical!

Stacey the Soccer Fairy (Sports Fairies Series #2) $0.01 It’s an exciting time in Fairyland. Everyone is getting ready for the Fairy Olympics! But Jack Frost’s goblins have stolen the Sports Fairies’ magic objects. Now they’re threatening to take over the whole competition!Rachel’s favorite soccer team is ready for the big game. But without Stacey the Soccer Fairy’s magic ball, they’ll never reach their goal!Find the enchanted object in each book, and help keep the Fairyland Olympics magical!

The Book of Dragons $9.95 Magic turns up in the most unexpected places in E. Nesbit’s madcap fairy tales—and so do dragons: One flies out of the pages of an enchanted book and eats an entire soccer team…. Two children try to wake St. George when a plague of dragons descends on modern England…. Wicked Prince Tiresome sets forth to hunt a fiery dragon with a pack of trained hippopotamuses….One hundred years after its first publication, this collection of 8 of Nesbit’s most delightful fantasy stories returns and is still every bit as fun as when it was first published. Its original 16 black-and-white illustrations are also included in this must-have for all Nesbit fans. Author Biography: E. Nesbit (1858–1924) was one of the pioneers of the fantasy genre for children, and the popularity of her classic novels, such as The Railway Children and The Enchanted Castle, has lasted a century.

The Book of Dragons $20 Magic turns up in the most unexpected places in E. Nesbit’s madcap fairy tales—and so do dragons: One flies out of the pages of an enchanted book and eats an entire soccer team…. Two children try to wake St. George when a plague of dragons descends on modern England…. Wicked Prince Tiresome sets forth to hunt a fiery dragon with a pack of trained hippopotamuses….One hundred years after its first publication, this collection of 8 of Nesbit’s most delightful fantasy stories returns and is still every bit as fun as when it was first published. Its original 16 black-and-white illustrations are also included in this must-have for all Nesbit fans. Author Biography: E. Nesbit (1858–1924) was one of the pioneers of the fantasy genre for children, and the popularity of her classic novels, such as The Railway Children and The Enchanted Castle, has lasted a century.

The Book of Dragons $4.97 Magic turns up in the most unexpected places in E. Nesbit’s madcap fairy tales—and so do dragons: One flies out of the pages of an enchanted book and eats an entire soccer team…. Two children try to wake St. George when a plague of dragons descends on modern England…. Wicked Prince Tiresome sets forth to hunt a fiery dragon with a pack of trained hippopotamuses….One hundred years after its first publication, this collection of 8 of Nesbit’s most delightful fantasy stories returns and is still every bit as fun as when it was first published. Its original 16 black-and-white illustrations are also included in this must-have for all Nesbit fans. Author Biography: E. Nesbit (1858–1924) was one of the pioneers of the fantasy genre for children, and the popularity of her classic novels, such as The Railway Children and The Enchanted Castle, has lasted a century.

The Book of Dragons $23.95 Magic turns up in the most unexpected places in E. Nesbit’s madcap fairy tales—and so do dragons: One flies out of the pages of an enchanted book and eats an entire soccer team…. Two children try to wake St. George when a plague of dragons descends on modern England…. Wicked Prince Tiresome sets forth to hunt a fiery dragon with a pack of trained hippopotamuses….One hundred years after its first publication, this collection of 8 of Nesbit’s most delightful fantasy stories returns and is still every bit as fun as when it was first published. Its original 16 black-and-white illustrations are also included in this must-have for all Nesbit fans. Author Biography: E. Nesbit (1858–1924) was one of the pioneers of the fantasy genre for children, and the popularity of her classic novels, such as The Railway Children and The Enchanted Castle, has lasted a century.

The Book of Dragons $9.99 Magic turns up in the most unexpected places in E. Nesbit’s madcap fairy tales—and so do dragons: One flies out of the pages of an enchanted book and eats an entire soccer team…. Two children try to wake St. George when a plague of dragons descends on modern England…. Wicked Prince Tiresome sets forth to hunt a fiery dragon with a pack of trained hippopotamuses….One hundred years after its first publication, this collection of 8 of Nesbit’s most delightful fantasy stories returns and is still every bit as fun as when it was first published. Its original 16 black-and-white illustrations are also included in this must-have for all Nesbit fans. Author Biography: E. Nesbit (1858–1924) was one of the pioneers of the fantasy genre for children, and the popularity of her classic novels, such as The Railway Children and The Enchanted Castle, has lasted a century.

The Book of Dragons $2.99 Magic turns up in the most unexpected places in E. Nesbit’s madcap fairy tales—and so do dragons: One flies out of the pages of an enchanted book and eats an entire soccer team…. Two children try to wake St. George when a plague of dragons descends on modern England…. Wicked Prince Tiresome sets forth to hunt a fiery dragon with a pack of trained hippopotamuses….One hundred years after its first publication, this collection of 8 of Nesbit’s most delightful fantasy stories returns and is still every bit as fun as when it was first published. Its original 16 black-and-white illustrations are also included in this must-have for all Nesbit fans. Author Biography: E. Nesbit (1858–1924) was one of the pioneers of the fantasy genre for children, and the popularity of her classic novels, such as The Railway Children and The Enchanted Castle, has lasted a century.

The Book of Dragons $18.95 Magic turns up in the most unexpected places in E. Nesbit’s madcap fairy tales—and so do dragons: One flies out of the pages of an enchanted book and eats an entire soccer team…. Two children try to wake St. George when a plague of dragons descends on modern England…. Wicked Prince Tiresome sets forth to hunt a fiery dragon with a pack of trained hippopotamuses….One hundred years after its first publication, this collection of 8 of Nesbit’s most delightful fantasy stories returns and is still every bit as fun as when it was first published. Its original 16 black-and-white illustrations are also included in this must-have for all Nesbit fans. Author Biography: E. Nesbit (1858–1924) was one of the pioneers of the fantasy genre for children, and the popularity of her classic novels, such as The Railway Children and The Enchanted Castle, has lasted a century.

The Book of Dragons $1.99 Magic turns up in the most unexpected places in E. Nesbit’s madcap fairy tales—and so do dragons: One flies out of the pages of an enchanted book and eats an entire soccer team…. Two children try to wake St. George when a plague of dragons descends on modern England…. Wicked Prince Tiresome sets forth to hunt a fiery dragon with a pack of trained hippopotamuses….One hundred years after its first publication, this collection of 8 of Nesbit’s most delightful fantasy stories returns and is still every bit as fun as when it was first published. Its original 16 black-and-white illustrations are also included in this must-have for all Nesbit fans. Author Biography: E. Nesbit (1858–1924) was one of the pioneers of the fantasy genre for children, and the popularity of her classic novels, such as The Railway Children and The Enchanted Castle, has lasted a century.

The Book of Dragons $0.99 Magic turns up in the most unexpected places in E. Nesbit’s madcap fairy tales—and so do dragons: One flies out of the pages of an enchanted book and eats an entire soccer team…. Two children try to wake St. George when a plague of dragons descends on modern England…. Wicked Prince Tiresome sets forth to hunt a fiery dragon with a pack of trained hippopotamuses….One hundred years after its first publication, this collection of 8 of Nesbit’s most delightful fantasy stories returns and is still every bit as fun as when it was first published. Its original 16 black-and-white illustrations are also included in this must-have for all Nesbit fans. Author Biography: E. Nesbit (1858–1924) was one of the pioneers of the fantasy genre for children, and the popularity of her classic novels, such as The Railway Children and The Enchanted Castle, has lasted a century.

The Book of Dragons $0.99 Magic turns up in the most unexpected places in E. Nesbit’s madcap fairy tales—and so do dragons: One flies out of the pages of an enchanted book and eats an entire soccer team…. Two children try to wake St. George when a plague of dragons descends on modern England…. Wicked Prince Tiresome sets forth to hunt a fiery dragon with a pack of trained hippopotamuses….One hundred years after its first publication, this collection of 8 of Nesbit’s most delightful fantasy stories returns and is still every bit as fun as when it was first published. Its original 16 black-and-white illustrations are also included in this must-have for all Nesbit fans. Author Biography: E. Nesbit (1858–1924) was one of the pioneers of the fantasy genre for children, and the popularity of her classic novels, such as The Railway Children and The Enchanted Castle, has lasted a century.

The Book of Dragons $6.99 Magic turns up in the most unexpected places in E. Nesbit’s madcap fairy tales—and so do dragons: One flies out of the pages of an enchanted book and eats an entire soccer team…. Two children try to wake St. George when a plague of dragons descends on modern England…. Wicked Prince Tiresome sets forth to hunt a fiery dragon with a pack of trained hippopotamuses….One hundred years after its first publication, this collection of 8 of Nesbit’s most delightful fantasy stories returns and is still every bit as fun as when it was first published. Its original 16 black-and-white illustrations are also included in this must-have for all Nesbit fans. Author Biography: E. Nesbit (1858–1924) was one of the pioneers of the fantasy genre for children, and the popularity of her classic novels, such as The Railway Children and The Enchanted Castle, has lasted a century.

The Book of Dragons $3.99 Magic turns up in the most unexpected places in E. Nesbit’s madcap fairy tales—and so do dragons: One flies out of the pages of an enchanted book and eats an entire soccer team…. Two children try to wake St. George when a plague of dragons descends on modern England…. Wicked Prince Tiresome sets forth to hunt a fiery dragon with a pack of trained hippopotamuses….One hundred years after its first publication, this collection of 8 of Nesbit’s most delightful fantasy stories returns and is still every bit as fun as when it was first published. Its original 16 black-and-white illustrations are also included in this must-have for all Nesbit fans. Author Biography: E. Nesbit (1858–1924) was one of the pioneers of the fantasy genre for children, and the popularity of her classic novels, such as The Railway Children and The Enchanted Castle, has lasted a century.

The Book of Dragons $0.99 Magic turns up in the most unexpected places in E. Nesbit’s madcap fairy tales—and so do dragons: One flies out of the pages of an enchanted book and eats an entire soccer team…. Two children try to wake St. George when a plague of dragons descends on modern England…. Wicked Prince Tiresome sets forth to hunt a fiery dragon with a pack of trained hippopotamuses….One hundred years after its first publication, this collection of 8 of Nesbit’s most delightful fantasy stories returns and is still every bit as fun as when it was first published. Its original 16 black-and-white illustrations are also included in this must-have for all Nesbit fans. Author Biography: E. Nesbit (1858–1924) was one of the pioneers of the fantasy genre for children, and the popularity of her classic novels, such as The Railway Children and The Enchanted Castle, has lasted a century.

The Book of Dragons $7.95 Magic turns up in the most unexpected places in E. Nesbit’s madcap fairy tales—and so do dragons: One flies out of the pages of an enchanted book and eats an entire soccer team…. Two children try to wake St. George when a plague of dragons descends on modern England…. Wicked Prince Tiresome sets forth to hunt a fiery dragon with a pack of trained hippopotamuses….One hundred years after its first publication, this collection of 8 of Nesbit’s most delightful fantasy stories returns and is still every bit as fun as when it was first published. Its original 16 black-and-white illustrations are also included in this must-have for all Nesbit fans. Author Biography: E. Nesbit (1858–1924) was one of the pioneers of the fantasy genre for children, and the popularity of her classic novels, such as The Railway Children and The Enchanted Castle, has lasted a century.

The Book of Dragons (Looking Glass Library Series) $9.99 Magic turns up in the most unexpected places in E. Nesbit’s madcap fairy tales—and so do dragons: One flies out of the pages of an enchanted book and eats an entire soccer team…. Two children try to wake St. George when a plague of dragons descends on modern England…. Wicked Prince Tiresome sets forth to hunt a fiery dragon with a pack of trained hippopotamuses….One hundred years after its first publication, this collection of 8 of Nesbit’s most delightful fantasy stories returns and is still every bit as fun as when it was first published. Its original 16 black-and-white illustrations are also included in this must-have for all Nesbit fans. Author Biography: E. Nesbit (1858–1924) was one of the pioneers of the fantasy genre for children, and the popularity of her classic novels, such as The Railway Children and The Enchanted Castle, has lasted a century.

The Busby Babes: Men of Magic $19.95 On February 6, 1958, a plane took off from a snowy Munich airport carrying probably the finest club side the world has ever known. Moments later, the aircraft crashed, killing some of the most legendary names in British soccer. This book is dedicated to those players—Roger Byrne, Tommy Taylor, the mighty Duncan Edwards and the others whose lives were cut off in their prime—and their indomitable manager, Sir Matt Busby. Max Arthur has sought out all the players who survived the crash and spoken to the relatives and friends of those who died. From these interviews, sometimes serious but often humorous, he has captured their remarkable spirit and created a unique portrait of all the Busby Babes.

The Business of Sports: Cases and Text on Strategy and Management $174.95 This is a case book written by prominent authors at both Harvard and Stanford. It contains nine core sections with approximately three to five cases per part. The parts include Leagues and Events, Sponsorship and Marketing, and Finance and Valuation. Each section is preceded with an Overview of Key Topics that set the stage for the cases and each section concludes with summary materials and discussion questions. The cases themselves focus on certain teams or aspects of team sports. It includes cases on major league soccer, the Boston Red Sox’s Fenway Park, the pros and cons of hiring a sports agent, Magic Johnson’s endorsement deals and the Women’s NBA. Each individual case is also followed by discussion questions.

The Business of Sports: Cases and Text on Strategy and Management $174.95 This is a case book written by prominent authors at both Harvard and Stanford. It contains nine core sections with approximately three to five cases per part. The parts include Leagues and Events, Sponsorship and Marketing, and Finance and Valuation. Each section is preceded with an Overview of Key Topics that set the stage for the cases and each section concludes with summary materials and discussion questions. The cases themselves focus on certain teams or aspects of team sports. It includes cases on major league soccer, the Boston Red Sox’s Fenway Park, the pros and cons of hiring a sports agent, Magic Johnson’s endorsement deals and the Women’s NBA. Each individual case is also followed by discussion questions.

The Girlfriends’ Guide to Getting Your Groove Back: Loving Your Family Without Losing Your Mind $14.95 According to Vicki Iovine, parenthood need not be a purgatory with no exit. Unsheathing her wit, she explains why dinner tables turn into debating forums, how take-out menus become magic passes into the mundane, and how all those luscious boyfriends turned into “that guy who won’t take out the garbage.” A soccer mom’s winning kick.

The Spoiled Sport (The Adventures of Marshall and Art Series) $17.44 This summer, Marshall and Art want to try something new-team sports! When the boys join a soccer league, they learn that not everyone has learned the same sportsmanship lessons that are taught at their parents’ karate studio. Can they set a good example for their teammate and coach? Looking Glass Library is an imprint of Magic Wagon, a division of ABDO Publishing Group. Grades preK-4.